French regional elections, 2015

French regional elections, 2015
France
6 and 13 December 2015

All 18 Regional Presidencies

All 1,757 Regional Councillors
All 157 Territorial Councillors

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Nicolas Sarkozy Jean-Christophe Cambadélis Marine Le Pen
Party LR PS FN
Regions won 7 + 1 (Union of Democrats and Independents 5 + 2 (Miscellaneous left) 0
Change Increase 5 Decrease 15 Steady
First round 5,785,073 5,019,723 6,018,672
Percentage 26.65% 23.12% 27.73%
Second round 10,127,196 7,263,567 6,820,147
Percentage 40.24% 28.86% 27.10%

Second round results by region.
  The Republicans and Union of Democrats and Independents
  Socialist Party
  Regionalists
  Miscellaneous left

Regional elections were held in France on 6 and 13 December 2015. At stake were the regional councils in metropolitan and overseas France as well as the Corsican Assembly and inaugural seats in the Assembly of French Guiana and Assembly of Martinique, all for a six-year term. The Departmental Council of Mayotte, which also exercises the powers of a region, is the only region not participating in this election, having already been renewed on 2 April 2015. There are 18 Regional Presidencies at stake, with 13 in continental France and Corsica, and 5 overseas. Though they do not have legislative autonomy, these territorial collectivities manage sizable budgets. Moreover, regional elections are often taken as a mid-term opinion poll.

These elections were the first to be held for the redrawn regions- the 27 regions of France were amalgamated into 18, this went into effect on 1 January 2016.[1][2]

Voting system

The regional elections are held in direct universal suffrage using proportional representation lists. The election is held over two rounds, with majority bonus. The lists must be gender balanced by alternatively have a male candidate and a female candidate from the top to the bottom of the list. Only lists with as many candidates as available seats[3] in every departement of the region may compete. Before 2004, lists could be presented only at the departement level, allowing smaller parties (e.g. Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Tradition, Alsace d'abord, Lutte Ouvrière, Revolutionary Communist League) to be represented as such in the regional councils and thus forcing major parties to enter into negotiations to rule some regions.

Following the 1999 and 2003 electoral reforms, with a first implementation in 2004, a two-round runoff voting system is used to elect the regional presidents. If no party gets at least 50% of the vote in the first round, a second round is held, which any party who got at least 10% in the first round may enter. Lists that obtain at least 5% of the vote in the first round may merge in the second round with a 'qualified list', which includes candidates from each merged list.

At the decisive round (first round if a list won 50%, the second round if not), the leading list receives a premium of 25% of the seats while the remaining seats are distributed among all lists who received at least 5% of votes. Thus, the majority bonus allows a leading list to have an absolute majority of seats in the Regional Council from one third of votes in the second round. The seats are distributed among the lists at the regional level but within each list, seats are allocated by departement branch in proportion to the number of votes in each department.

Opinion polls

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size
LO/NPA FG FG/EELV EELV PS/PRG AEI Miscellaneous Left UPR MoDem UDI LR DLF FN
Harris Interactive 29 March 2015 4,286 1% 7% 7% 20% 5% 7% 25% 2% 22%
Odoxa 24 & 25 September 2015 929 2% 7% 3% 23% 35% 3% 26%
Elabe 22 & 23 September 2015 986 1.5% 6% 8.5% 22.5% 1.5% 1.5% 27% 3% 26%
OpinionWay 7 to 9 October 2015 993 2% 5% 3% 3% 23% 31% 2% 28%
Elabe 13–14 October 2015 972 0,5 % 5% 8,5 % 23% 1,5 % 0,5 % 30% 3% 26%
TNS Sofres 13 to 23 October 2015 2200 1% 6% 8% 21% 2 % 1% 2 % 27% 3% 28%
Ipsos 30 October to 2 November 2015 936 1,5 % 5% 3,5 % 3,5 % 20% 1% 32% 4% 26%
Harris Interactive 17–19 November 2015 1011 2 % 5 % 7 % 26 % 1 % 1 % 25 % 5 % 27%
OpinionWay 18–19 November 2015 984 1 % 4 % 9 % 22 % 28 % 4 % 30 %
TNS Sofres 20–23 November 2015 1522 1,5 % 4 % 7 % 22 % 2 % 1 % 27 % 4 % 29 %

National results

France uses a two-round runoff system to elect the regional presidencies, and as such not all seats contested will see a candidate elected in the first round.

First round

The first round election was held on 6 December 2015.

List Votes Votes %
Union of the Left 5,019,723 23.12
Europe Ecology – The Greens 1,440,226 6.63
Left Front 541,409 2.49
Miscellaneous left 401,517 1.85
French Communist Party 337,390 1.55
Socialist Party 62,070 0.29
Radical Party of the Left 4,227 0.02
Total left-wing 7,806,562 35.96
  Union of the Right 5,785,073 26.65
France Arise 827,262 3.81
Miscellaneous right 142,836 0.66
Democratic Movement 85,450 0.39
The Republicans 42,346 0.20
Union of Democrats and Independents 1,818 0.01
Total right-wing 6,884,785 31.72
National Front 6,018,672 27.73
  Miscellaneous far-right 34,061 0.16
Total far-right 6,052,733 27.89
  Miscellaneous far-left 334,140 1.54
  Regionalists 273,431 1.26
  Miscellaneous other 228,929 1.05
  Miscellaneous ecologists 127,451 0.59
Total 22,609,602 100
Registered voters/turnout 45,298,641 49.91

Second round

Runoff elections were held on 13 December 2015 in regions where no candidate was able to win outright in the first round.

After the first round, the Socialist Party withdrew its lists in the regions of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and Hauts-de-France, where they finished in third place, in an attempt to block the Front National from winning seats in the second round due to split opposition from the centre-left and centre-right blocs.[4] However, despite instructions from the party, the Socialist candidate chose to maintain his list in the region of Le Grand-Est, which similarly had them in third and the FN with a sizable lead after the first round.[5]

The result was a disappointment for the Front National, which was unable to win any of the regional presidencies in the face of concerted tactical voting. However, in both the north and the south, they managed to increase their share of the vote from the first round.[6] Of the 12 regions in mainland France, 7 were won by the Republicans and 5 were retained by the Socialists.[7]

List Votes Votes % Seats Seats %
Union of the Right 10,127,196 40.63 818 42.83
Union of the Left 7,263,567 29.14 520 27.23
Miscellaneous left 622,382 2.50 144 7.54
Socialist Party 18,288 0.07 13 0.68
Total left-wing 7,904,237 31.71 677 35.45
National Front 6,820,147 27.36 358 18.74
Regionalists 72,829 0.29 57 2.98
Total 24,924,409 100 1914 100
Registered voters/turnout 44,832,737 58.44

By region

The following table shows regional presidents before and after the elections, with merged regions shown alongside the region taking effect in 2016. The candidates on the left were the incumbents, whereas the candidates on the right were those elected (or re-elected) to the new regions. In the case of Corsica and Martinique, multiple presidencies were at stake.

Region President Before Party Region President After Party
Alsace Philippe Richert   LR Grand Est Philippe Richert   LR
Champagne-Ardenne Jean-Paul Bachy   DVG
Lorraine Jean-Pierre Masseret   PS
Aquitaine Alain Rousset   PS Nouvelle-Aquitaine Alain Rousset   PS
Limousin Gérard Vandenbroucke   PS
Poitou-Charentes Jean-François Macaire   PS
Auvergne René Souchon   PS Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Laurent Wauquiez   LR
Rhône-Alpes Jean-Jack Queyranne   PS
Burgundy François Patriat   PS Bourgogne-Franche-Comté Marie-Guite Dufay   PS
Franche-Comté Marie-Guite Dufay   PS
Brittany Pierrick Massiot   PS Brittany Jean-Yves Le Drian   PS
Centre-Val de Loire François Bonneau   PS Centre-Val de Loire François Bonneau   PS
Corsica Assembly Dominique Bucchini   PCF Corsica Assembly Jean-Guy Talamoni   CL
Executive Council Paul Giacobbi   DVG Executive Council Gilles Simeoni   FC
French Guiana Regional Council Rodolphe Alexandre   DVG French Guiana Assembly Rodolphe Alexandre   DVG
General Council Alain Tien-Liong   MDES
Guadeloupe Victorin Lurel   PS Guadeloupe Ary Chalus   DVG
Île-de-France Jean-Paul Huchon   PS Île-de-France Valérie Pécresse   LR
Languedoc-Roussilon Damien Alary   PS Occitanie Carole Delga   PS
Midi-Pyrénées Martin Malvy   PS
Réunion Didier Robert   LR Réunion Didier Robert   LR
Martinique Regional Council Serge Letchimy   PPM Martinique Assembly Claude Lise   RDM
General Council Josette Manin   BPM Executive Council Alfred Marie-Jeanne   MIM
Nord-Pas-de-Calais Daniel Percheron   PS Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand   LR
Picardy Claude Gewerc   PS
Lower Normandy Laurent Beauvais   PS Normandy Hervé Morin   UDI
Upper Normandy Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol   PS
Pays de la Loire Jacques Auxiette   PS Pays de la Loire Bruno Retailleau   LR
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Michel Vauzelle   PS Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Christian Estrosi   LR

The following table shows each major party's performance by region. The bolded candidates received the most votes, and were thus elected president of their respective regions.

Region Union of the Right Union of the Left National Front Regionalists
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Laurent Wauquiez
1,201,528 (40.61%)
Jean-Jack Queyranne
1,089,791 (36.84%)
Christophe Boudot
667,084 (22.55%)
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté François Sauvadet
382,177 (32.89%)
Marie-Guite Dufay
402,941 (34.68%)
Sophie Montel
376,902 (32.44%)
Brittany Marc Le Fur
387.836 (29.72%)
Jean-Yves Le Drian
670,754 (51.41%)
Gilles Pennelle
246,177 (18.87%)
Centre-Val de Loire Philippe Vigier
355,475 (34.58%)
François Bonneau
364,211 (35.43%)
Philippe Loiseau
308,422 (30.0%)
Corsica José Rossi
40,480 (27.07%)
Paul Giacobbi
42,607 (28.09%)
Christophe Canioni
13,599 (9.09%)
Gilles Simeoni
52,839 (35.34%)
French Guiana Rodolphe Alexandre
21,163 (54.55%)
Alain Tien-Liong
17,361 (45.45%)
Grand Est Philippe Richert
1,060,029 (48.4%)
Jean-Pierre Masseret
339,749 (15.51%)
Florian Philippot
790,141 (36.08%)
Guadeloupe Victorin Lurel
72,721 (42.48)
Ary Chalus[8]
98,464 (57.42%)
Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand
1,389,316 (57.7%)
Withdrew Marine Le Pen
1,015,649 (42.23%)
Île-de-France Valérie Pécresse
1,629,249 (43.8%)
Claude Bartolone
1,569,093 (42.18%)
Wallerand de Saint-Just
521,383 (14.02%)
Martinique Serge Letchimy
70,776 (45.86%)
Alfred Marie-Jeanne
83,541 (54.14%)
Normandy Hervé Morin
495,591 (36.43%)
Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol
490,840 (36.08%)
Nicolas Bay
374,089 (27.5%)
Nouvelle-Aquitaine Virginie Calmels
798,142 (34.06%)
Alain Rousset
1,037,330 (44.27%)
Jacques Colombier
507,660 (21.67%)
Occitanie Dominique Reynié
520,011 (21.32%)
Carole Delga
1,092,969 (48.81%)
Louis Aliot
826,023 (33.87%)
Pays de la Loire Bruno Retailleau
620,245 (42.7%)
Christophe Clergeau
545,637 (37.56%)
Pascal Gannat
286,723 (19.74%)
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Christian Estrosi
1,073,485 (54.78%)
Withdrew Marion Maréchal-Le Pen
886,147 (45.22%)
Réunion Didier Robert
173,592 (52.69%)
Huguette Bello
155,896 (47.31%)

References

  1. La carte à 13 régions définitivement adoptée, Le Monde, 17 December 2014, accessed 2 January 2015
  2. "LOI n° 2015–29 du 16 janvier 2015 relative à la délimitation des régions, aux élections régionales et départementales et modifiant le calendrier électoral – Legifrance". Retrieved 13 December 2015.
  3. also compulsory in French municipal elections
  4. Siraud, Mathilde. "Face au FN, le PS choisit le "barrage républicain" contre l'avis de ses candidats". Le Figaro (in French). Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  5. "Régionales/Grand-Est: Masseret (PS) maintient sa liste". Le Figaro (in French). Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  6. "France's far-right National Front loses a round, but they will be back". The Economist. 13 December 2015. Retrieved 14 December 2015.
  7. http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales-2015/article/2015/12/13/les-resultats-des-elections-region-par-region_4831146_4640869.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1450045112
  8. Whilst not strictly a regionalist platform, Ary Chalus' list included a combination of local parties, socialists and conservative dissidents opposed to the list of the Socialist Party and its allies.
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