Helmut Norpoth
| Helmut Norpoth | |
|---|---|
| Born | 1943 (age 72–73) |
| Fields | Political science |
| Institutions | Stony Brook University |
| Alma mater | University of Michigan |
| Thesis | Sources of party cohesion in the U.S. House of Representatives (1974) |
| Known for | Predicting election results |
Helmut Norpoth (born 1943) is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University.
Education and career
Norpoth received his undergraduate degree from the Free University of Berlin in Germany in 1966. He then attended the University of Michigan, where he received his M.A. and Ph.D. in 1967 and 1974, respectively. Before joining Stony Brook University as an assistant professor in 1979, he taught at the University of Cologne and the University of Texas. In 1980, he was promoted to associate professor at Stony Brook, and became a tenured full professor there in 1985.[1]
Research
Norpoth's research focuses on multiple subjects in political science, including public opinion and electoral behavior, and predicting the results of elections in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.[2][3] For example, he developed the Primary Model, a statistical model he uses to predict the results of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. He has used the model to correctly predict the winner of all six presidential elections from 1996 to 2016, including the Donald Trump victory in the 2016 election.[4] This model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent.[4] In February 2015, he projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the general election the following year.[5] In 2016, this model gained significant media attention because it predicted that Donald Trump would win the popular vote in that year's election which he did not.[6] In response to critics who cite polls in which Clinton leads Trump by a significant margin, Norpoth has said that these polls do not take into account who will actually vote in November, writing, "...nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."[7]
References
- ↑ "Helmut Norpoth Curriculum Vitae". Stony Brook University. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
- ↑ "Author". Primarymodel.com. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
- ↑ "Helmut Norpoth". Experts. Stony Brook University. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
- 1 2 Collins, Ben (27 October 2016). "Meet the Professor Whose 'Primary Model' Says Trump Has 87% Chance to Win". The Daily Beast. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
- ↑ Roarty, Alex (13 February 2015). "Why Hillary Clinton Isn't the Favorite After All". The Atlantic. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
- ↑ Mortimer, Caroline (27 October 2016). "Donald Trump will win, claims man who correctly predicted almost every US presidential election". The Independent. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
- ↑ Tampone, Kevin (19 October 2016). "SUNY professor says Trump win at least 87 percent certain; other polls 'bunk'". Syracuse.com. Retrieved 28 October 2016.